What Idea Cellular took 17 years to achieve, Reliance Jio did in 16 months

Reliance Jio reported a revenue of Rs6,879 crore for the December quarter, while Idea Cellular is expected to report a revenue of Rs6,700 crore.

Reliance is estimated to have raced past Idea Cellular in the December quarter, just 16 months after its commercial launch.

It’s been only 16 months since Reliance Jio Infocomm Ltd launched commercial operations, but it may have already overtaken Idea Cellular Ltd on revenue. The new entrant reported revenue of Rs6,879 crore for the December quarter. In comparison, Idea Cellular is expected to report revenue of around Rs6,700 crore, based on consensus Street estimates.

Idea Cellular had launched operations in 1997 and it wasn’t until 2014 that it reached a similar size in revenues terms. In other words, what took Idea Cellular 17 years to accomplish, Reliance Jio has done in 16 months. Even Bharti Airtel Ltd took around 13 years before its revenues reached Jio’s annual run-rate of around Rs28,000 crore in 2008.

Of course, the incumbents started slow in the mid-1990s, when tariffs were prohibitive and volumes were low. It wasn’t until 2002-03, when the government started encouraging competition by granting new licences, that growth picked up.

As such, some may argue that it’s not fair to compare Jio’s growth with that of incumbents. Besides, in the third quarter (Q3) an important revenue source for incumbents was hit, after the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India cut interconnect usage charges (IUC) by 57%. Airtel’s India wireless revenues fell 12.2% sequentially, over two-thirds of which was on account of the IUC cut.

Even so, that doesn’t take away from the fast-paced growth at Jio. Its investments—Rs2.15 trillion and counting—are far higher than that of Idea’s gross invested capital of around Rs1.25 trillion. They are even higher than Airtel’s cumulative investments of Rs2.03 trillion.

The high investments have made it clear for some time now that Jio is in a hurry to capture market share.

Still, its pace of growth has taken almost everyone by surprise. “Jio’s revenue outperformance was driven completely by higher-than-expected Arpu (average revenue per user) of Rs154/month. This was on the back of the October 2017 price increase and an increase in the proportion of subscribers opting for higher-allowance/Arpu plans,” analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities wrote in a note to clients.

Data volumes handled by the company are higher than all other telcos combined, analysts at JPMorgan India pointed out in a note to clients. “(This is something) we think must worry Bharti Airtel and the others... Jio’s data traffic of 4.31 billion GB in Q3 is nearly four times Bharti’s data traffic (1.1 billion GB), despite the latter having a subscriber base that’s 1.8 times higher,” they wrote in the note.

Jio told analysts in a post-results conference that the data and voice usage on its network shows that it is the primary SIM for most of its subscribers.

Of course, it’s also true that large incumbents have maintained their subscriber market share despite Jio’s onslaught, which means that the new entrant hasn’t yet been able to wean away their subscribers yet .

The company’s next stage of growth might depend on its success in dislodging these subscribers from incumbents’ networks. After all, while growth in Arpu helped Jio in Q3, this might not continue.

Jio’s tariff cut in January and the many cashback vouchers it has issued since October 2017 may mean Arpu remains flat this year. Growth then has to be driven by increasing subscriber count.

How Jio goes about this task is anybody’s guess. One thing’s for certain though: as Kotak’s note puts it, there’ll never be a dull moment with Jio around.

http://www.livemint.com/Money/JjgQ9OdNQS6K5KXXMkBvCP/What-Idea-Cellular-took-17-years-to-achieve-Reliance-Jio-di.html

Toothpaste ingredient triclosan could fight drug-resistant strains of malaria

Scientists say a common ingredient of toothpaste, triclosan, could be developed to fight drug-resistant strains of malaria as it has potential to interrupt infections at two critical stages in the liver and the blood

In toothpaste, triclosan helps prevent a build-up of plaque bacteria. 

London: Research carried out in part by an artificially-intelligent (AI) ‘robot scientist’ has found that a common ingredient of toothpaste could be developed to fight drug-resistant strains of malaria.

In a study in the journal Scientific Reports, scientists from Britain’s Cambridge University who used the AI robot to conduct high-throughput screening said the ingredient, triclosan, showed the potential to interrupt malaria infections at two critical stages — in the liver and the blood.

Malaria kills around half a million people every year, the vast majority of them children in the poorest parts of Africa. The disease can be treated with a number of drugs, but resistance to these medicines is increasing, raising the risk that some strains may become untreatable in the future.

Because of this, the search for new medicines was becoming increasingly urgent, said Steve Oliver of Cambridge University’s biochemistry department, who co-led the work with Elizabeth Bilsland.

After being transferred into a new host via a mosquito bite, malaria parasites work their way into the liver, where they mature and reproduce. They then move into red blood cells, multiply and spread around the body, causing fever and potentially life-threatening complications.

Scientists have known for some time that triclosan can halt malaria parasites’ growth at the blood stage of the infection by inhibiting the action of an enzyme known as enoyl reductase (ENR), which is involved in production of fatty acids.

In toothpaste, this helps prevent a build-up of plaque bacteria.

In this latest work, however, Bilsland’s team found that triclosan also inhibits an entirely different enzyme of the malaria parasite, called DHFR.

DHFR is the target of the antimalarial pyrimethamine—a drug to which malaria parasites are increasingly developing resistance, particularly in Africa. The Cambridge team’s work showed that triclosan was able to target and act on this enzyme even in pyrimethamine-resistant parasites.

“The discovery by our robot colleague that triclosan is effective against malaria targets offers hope that we may be able to use it to develop a new drug,” said Elizabeth Bilsland, who co-led the work.

“We know it is a safe compound, and its ability to target two points in the malaria parasite’s lifecycle means the parasite will find it difficult to evolve resistance.”

The AI robot scientist used in the study — nicknamed Eve — was designed to automate and speed up the drug discovery process.

It does this by automatically developing and testing hypotheses to explain observations, running experiments using laboratory robotics, interpreting the results, altering the hypotheses, and then repeating the cycle. Reuters

http://www.livemint.com/Science/Oac9HXSBY4gYG8uuf89BMN/Toothpaste-ingredient-triclosan-could-fight-drugresistant-s.html

Tata vs Cyrus Mistry: Tata Trusts MD moves Bombay HC against quashing of summons

A Mumbai sessions court had on December 26 quashed the summons issued to Cyrus Mistry and others in the Rs500 crore defamation case filed by Tata Trusts MD R. Venkatramanan

Tata Trusts MD R. Venkatramanan had filed a criminal defamation complaint against ousted Tata Sons chairman Cyrus Mistry for making ‘false’ statements and sought Rs500 crore as damages. 

Mumbai: Tata Trusts’s managing trustee R. Venkatramanan on Friday moved the Bombay high court against a sessions court order quashing summons issued to ousted Tata Group chairman Cyrus Mistry in connection with a defamation complaint filed by Venkatramanan.

On December 26, a Mumbai sessions court had quashed the summons issued to Mistry and others in the Rs500 crore defamation case. A metropolitan magistrate’s court had issued the summons in July 2017, directing Mistry and others to appear.

Venkatramanan’s petition termed the sessions court’s order as “arbitrary and illegal”, saying the court exceeded its jurisdiction while examining the merits of the case.

The petition will come up for hearing before Justice Revati Mohite-Dere in due course, according to the high court roster.

Venkatramanan filed a criminal defamation complaint in the magistrate’s court against Mistry and others last year for making “false” statements and sought Rs500 crore as damages.

http://www.livemint.com/Companies/yFAwPJGQEtAnHNksgXzmBN/Tata-vs-Cyrus-Mistry-Tata-Trusts-MD-moves-Bombay-HC-against.html

You may not believe some findings of Annual Status of Education Report: ‘7 out of 10 teens can use cellphone but cannot read basic text’

More than seven out of ten children in the age group of 14-18 years can use a cellphone, but cannot read basic text fluently in their language, says ASER.

While only 12 per cent males have never used a cellphone, the corresponding number of females is much higher at 22 per cent, it says.

More than seven out of ten children in the age group of 14-18 years can use a cellphone, but cannot read basic text fluently in their language, says the Annual Status of Education Report (ASER). The report also says that females have reduced access to cellphones.

While only 12 per cent males have never used a cellphone, the corresponding number of females is much higher at 22 per cent, it says. The report released here today is based on a survey which was carried out in 28 districts of 24 states, with four domains in focus, namely what are the children of this age group (14 to 18 years) doing, their ability, awareness and aspirations.

“While 25 per cent in the 14-18 age group still cannot read basic text fluently in their own language, more than half struggle with division problems. As for English sentences, 53 per cent can read them. It has also been found that the proportion of youths, who have not acquired basic math skills by 14 years, is the same as that of 18-year-olds,” the report says.

ASER 2017 has focused on 14 to 18-year-olds, who have just moved beyond the elementary school and are the first batch to pass out of class VIII after the implementation of the Right to Education Act, 2009. According to the report, the number of students enrolled in school systems once they move out of the protection of the Right to Education Act, has drastically decreased particularly of girls.

The survey this year has attempted to analyse what do the children do after they move out of the security of the Right to Education Act, how much of what they learnt can be applied in their daily lives, what kind of exposure and familiarity with technology they enjoy, and what kind of career or educational goals they nurture as they get closer to adulthood.

However, the report has found that enrolment in schools or colleges among children at 14 years of age is a lot more than among those at 18 years of age.

The report also observes that the enrolment gap between males and females increases with age. It shows that at 14 years, while 4.7 per cent males and 5.7 per cent females are not enrolled in schools or colleges, at 18 years that gap increases with 27.8 per cent males and 32.1 per cent females out of schools or colleges.

http://www.financialexpress.com/education-2/you-may-not-believe-some-findings-of-annual-status-of-education-report-7-out-of-10-teens-can-use-cellphone-but-cannot-read-basic-text/1017975/

Top Stock picks by Mutual Funds ...STUDY & BUY ...!!!!

SBI to Sun Pharma: Top 10 stock picks by mutual funds in December

Interestingly, after several years, two public sector banks (other than the mammoth State Bank of India) emerged as most chased stocks by fund managers

Chandan Kishore Kant Last Updated at January 16, 2018 13:56 IST

As the year 2017 was nearing its end, India's equity fund managers were busy in shuffling their portfolios before the new year begins - which most see as a challenging year studded with lot of volatility.Interestingly, after several years, two public sector banks (other than the mammoth State Bank of India) emerged as most chased stocks by fund managers. Shares of Punjab National Bank and Union Bank of India were heavily lapped up as fund managers poured in over Rs 19 billion in the two counters.

Fund managers say that recent actions taken to contain NPAs and additional money being pumped into these banks have brought back the public sector banks on the radar.Apart from these, fund managers primarily looked more for large cap stocks like Sun Pharmaceutical, Vedanta, Larsen & Toubro, Reliance Industries and TCS. In recent advisory, fund managers have raised the caution and advised investors to look for large-cap oriented stocks in current times when stock indices are trading at historical highs.Interestingly, at a time when IT major Infosys did reasonably better during the Q3 quarter and stocks move up quite well, fund managers sold the counter the most as they liquidated nearly 16 million shares of the company. Maruti Suzuki continued to be on sell radar while top holdings like private banks like IndusInd and Axis could not attract fund managers.

	Most Bought and Most Sold Stocks by Mutual Funds in December, 2017
	Most Bought Stocks				Most Sold Stocks
	Companies	Shares Bought	Money Pumped		Companies	Shares Sold	Money Liquidated
		(in million)	(Rs Billion)			(in million)	(Rs Billion)
	Punjab National Bank	75.00	12.85		Infosys	-16.50	17.24
	IndiGo	6.30	7.62		Maruti Suzuki	-1.10	10.40
	Union Bank of India	43.80	6.32		India Hotels Company	-81.20	9.57
	Sun Pharmaceutical	10.00	5.69		IndusInd Bank	-3.70	6.18
	Shree Cement	0.30	5.42		Axis Bank	-9.90	5.57
	Vedanta	15.90	5.23		Wipro	-16.20	5.08
	Larsen & Toubro	4.00	5.02		GAIL India	-10.10	5.05
	Reliance Industries	5.40	5.01		TVS Motor Company	-3.80	2.96
	Motherson Sumi Sys	13.20	5.01		Castrol India	-14.80	2.86
	TCS	1.80	4.99		Shriram Transport FinCorp	-1.70	2.56
	Source : Edelweiss Fund Insight Report

First Published: Tue, January 16 2018. 11:54 IST

http://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/top-10-stock-picks-by-mfs-in-december-118011600293_1.html

This Rakesh Jhunjhunwala stock nearly doubled in 2017, Kotak Securities says buy

Investment maestro Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s ability to pick multi-bagger stocks needs no elaboration, as in 2017 alone, many of his stock picks have more than doubled investor wealth. Kotak Securities is bullish on the shares of one such company, and its target price implies an upside of more than 30% from current market prices.

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala holds 1.8% stake or 3.47 lakh shares of Federal Bank as at the end of December-17.

Investment maestro Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s ability to pick multi-bagger stocks needs no elaboration, as in 2017 alone, many of his stock picks have more than doubled investor wealth. The shares of Federal Bank is one such stock pick, which nearly doubled in the previous calendar year 2017. Notably, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala holds 1.8% stake in the company or 3.47 lakh shares of the company, translating to Rs 376.8 crore at today’s share prices.

While investors may be mulling whether to invest in the shares, Kotak Securities has a buy on the shares with a target price of Rs 140. Federal Bank shares were trading at Rs 108.5, down by more than 4.5% this morning on NSE. The brokerage firm’s target price implies an upside of nearly 30% from current market prices.

Federal Bank has posted a 26.43 percent rise in net profit at Rs 260.01 crore for the third quarter ended December 31, 2017. The private sector lender had reported a net profit of Rs 205.65 crore in the same quarter previous fiscal. Total income of the bank came in at Rs 2,729.83 crore during the quarter from Rs 2,556.83 crore in the year-ago period, it said in a regulatory filing. Kotak Securities says that it continues to like the execution of the bank. Further, the research and brokerage firm expects RoE to move closer to 12% in the upcoming quarters.

During the quarter, the gross non-performing assets (NPAs) fell to 2.52 percent from 2.77 percent at the end of the third quarter of 2016-17. Net NPAs of the bank stood at 1.36 percent as against 1.58 percent reported in the same quarter of the previous fiscal.

Notably, ace investor Rakesh Jhunjhunwala has reduced his stake to 1.80% in Federal Bank, from the earlier 1.85% as at the end of September-2017. Four other stocks in his portfolio had more than doubled in 2017. These include his favourite scrip Titan Company Ltd returning 161%, Delta Corp Ltd shares which returned 170%, shares of Dewan Housing Finance which surged by 142% and shares of Escorts Ltd which zoomed 158%.

What sets the man apart from other investors in the stock market? In his own words–ability to take risk. “One thing which keeps me apart is that I have got guts. I may have Rs 1,000 in my bank but if I think the deal is worth a crore – I will do it. I have guts and setbacks don’t put me off. I feel them for 10 minutes but then I am ready to fight back,” Rakesh Jhunjhunwala explained in a recent interview with CNBC TV18.

http://www.financialexpress.com/market/this-rakesh-jhunjhunwala-stock-nearly-doubled-in-2017-kotak-securities-says-buy/1016919/

You won’t believe your eyes! Indonesia Stock Exchange building’s floor collapses like a pack of cards(Shocking video)

Miraculously no one got killed during the incident in which people at Indonesian stock exchange can be seen collapsing into the lobby along with the floor.

Indonesia Stock Exchange building’s floor collapses, more than seventy injured.

A dramatic video showed more than 70 people were injured when a mezzanine floor at the Indonesia Stock Exchange in Jakarta collapsed on Monday, reports channelnewsasia.com. Miraculously no one got killed during the incident in which people at Indonesian stock exchange can be seen collapsing into the lobby along with the floor. After the incident police cordoned off the complex. The people were in panic and channelnewsasia.com report said that most of the injured were university students. The report also quoted a student’s statement saying, “There was a rumbling noise but it wasn’t an explosion. It was like something had fallen, and suddenly the floor we were standing on fell away.”According to a report by AFP, a Jakarta police spokesman said that the collapse was an accident and not the result of an explosion.

National police spokesman Setyo Wasisto told AFP that seventy-five people were injured during the incident. There were no reports of deaths. “I saw many people bleeding,” student Rizki Noviandi, who was taking part in a competition at the exchange building, told Metro TV. “So many people were carried out of the building and were left on the grass outside… until the ambulances arrived.” The lobby was filled with debris and toppled-over plants near a Starbucks coffee outlet, as hundreds of building employees were evacuated. “Our search and rescue teams, the police, doctors, the firefighters are all still working,” Wasisto said. “They are cleaning the debris and also searching for other possible injuries,” he added. Those hurt mostly sustained injuries to their legs and arms, said Jakarta police spokesman Argo Yuwono.

“The accident happened at the first floor… It’s a floor where many employees are passing by… There are some victims but they have been taken to a nearby hospital,” Yuwono told reporters. The accident happened in one of two towers in the complex. “There was a sound, like something had fallen off a building structure, for about 20 seconds. Everyone was panicking and people were immediately being evacuated,” Amailia Putri Hasniawati, a journalist based at the exchange, told AFP. It was not immediately clear what caused the accident at the tower in Sudirman district, which was built in 1995.

http://www.financialexpress.com/world-news/watch-indonesia-stock-exchange-buildings-floor-collapses-more-than-seventy-injured/1016633/

‘Coalgate’ probe..bank accounts of visitors at ex-CBI chief Ranjit Sinha’s ..!!!

‘Coalgate’ probe: SIT to examine bank accounts of visitors at ex-CBI chief Ranjit Sinha’s residence, SC told

In its submissions before the apex court, the SIT informed the Supreme Court that visitors at Ranjit Sinha's house were more than what is mentioned in the diary and that a probe was underway into ascertaining the facts.

By: FE Online | Published: January 15, 2018 4:13 PM

Ranjit Sinha, who served as CBI director from 2012 to 2014, was accused of meeting some of the accused in the coal scam that included senior politicians and businessmen.

The Special Investigation Team set up to probe allegations against former CBI director Ranjit Sinha in the coal block allocation scam informed the Supreme Court on Monday that it will be examining the bank accounts of those who feature in the list of visitors to Sinha’s residence, news agency PTI reported today.

The submission of the SIT is part of the status report that the Supreme Court had sought from the SIT constituted by it on January 23. On December 5, the apex court had asked the agency to finalise some cases in relation to the scam, pending before it, by January 15, 2018.

In its submissions before the apex court, the SIT said that it had made substantial progress in its probe against ex-CBI chief Sinha. It further informed the SC that visitors at Sinha’s house were more than what is mentioned in the diary and that a probe was underway into ascertaining the facts. The SIT is trying to trace all vehicles that used to come regularly at Sinha’s official residence, the top court was informed.

In April last year, Sinha was booked by the CBI in a case of coal block allocation on charges that he tried to influence the probe into the scam as head of the agency. In its order of January 23, the Supreme Court had held that a prima facie case was “definitely” made out for probing allegations of abuse of authority by Sinha when he was the CBI Director.

On the same day, the top court had ordered the setting up of the SIT to probe the allegations of “abuse of authority” prima facie committed by Sinha to scuttle the probe in coal block allocation cases.

A 1974-batch Indian Police Service officer, Sinha, who served as the director of the CBI from 2012 to 2014, was accused of meeting some of the accused in the coal scam that included senior politicians and businessmen. It is said that all the meetings took place at Sinha’s official residence.

At the hearing today, the Supreme Court also came down hard on the CBI and the Enforcement Directorate for “slow” progress in the probe into the coal scam cases, PTI reported.

Get latest news and updates on Auto Expo 2018, check breaking news on Budget 2018, like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

http://www.financialexpress.com/india-news/coalgate-probe-sit-to-examine-bank-accounts-of-visitors-at-ex-cbi-chief-ranjit-sinhas-residence-sc-told/1016065/

How to pick stock market winners: Here is what investors must do.......

On February 1, the Union Budget will announce policies for different, niche sectors. Tune a part of your equity investment in companies which may gain. However, do not overlook the fundamentals of a company.

As the Sensex scales new heights and returns from debt products stagnate, retail investors are increasingly looking at investing in equities.

As the Sensex scales new heights and returns from debt products stagnate, retail investors are increasingly looking at investing in equities. In fact, in 2017, the Sensex and Nifty gained 28% and 29%, respectively, largely driven by liquidity. Even the broader markets showed smart returns as the Nifty Midcap surged 45%. But before investing in stocks directly, investors must understand the various determinants of portfolio performance, look at the fundamentals of the company and select good companies to invest.

Look at fundamentals

Before investing in stocks directly, look at the fundamentals of the company. As a long-term investor, do not let drops in markets dampen your spirits as the Indian markets are likely to deliver higher than expected returns. Before deciding on a company to invest, look at cash flows, earnings, corporate governance, debt-to-equity ratio and returns. The primary valuation matrix that every investor must look at is the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. It is computed by dividing the market price with the company’s earning per share. Stocks with low PE ratio are known to have cheaper current price and expected to generate higher return in subsequent periods. Selling your stock when it is low, as done by most retail investors, will not help as one will lose the invested money. The near-term volatility should not be a major concern unless the fundamentals of a particular stock or a sector doesn’t look encouraging. Instead, consider buying more stocks when the prices are low to bring down your overall average price for the shares. Investing in stock market should be seen as long-term as the purpose of investing in stocks is to build wealth.

Market cycles

All asset classes, including stocks, have unique cycles. Look at the cycles carefully as in some years, small and value stocks may outperform the market. Investors should understand that their portfolio will not identically track the market every single year. Recently, mid-cap stocks outperformed large-cap peers. While the mid-caps success story has been a good one, large-caps are likely to offer better consolidated returns over a long term. At the time of the Budget on February 1, the government will announce various policies in niche sectors. Tune a part of your equity investment in companies which may gain. However, by no means does this imply that you overlook the fundamentals of a company. Invest in a company which has the potential to bring about a positive turnaround using the favorable government policy.

Timing the markets

Leave that for speculators and day traders. When a retail investor times the market, he usually misses out on the rally or enters the market at the wrong time — either when the valuations have peaked or when the markets are on the verge of declining. Typically, retail investors begin investing in stocks out of fear they might miss out on another year of growth. Instead of timing the market, set a default option, every month or quarter as per your own investment policy. Always remember that catching the tops and bottoms is a myth and in doing so, more people have lost far more money than people who have made money. Retail investors who invest money systematically in stocks and hold on to them patiently have been seen generating outstanding returns. Have patience and follow a disciplined investment approach besides keeping a long-term broad picture in mind. If you want to invest in equities in a volatile market, ensure that you have surplus funds. High risk, high gain concept may not work always.

Safe with mutual funds

At the end, if you think direct investing in stocks is not your cup of tea, then invest in equities through mutual funds at least till the turbulent times are over. With mutual funds, you can invest through systematic investment plans by investing small sums of money every month over a period of time. They are like a recurring deposit which enables an investor to buy units on a given date each month. One of the biggest advantage of an SIP for a retail investor is that one does not have to time the market and worry about the volatility. As an SIP is meant to tide over volatility in the markets, the longer the investment horizon the better it is. If you start out young, equity funds should constitute around 80% of your portfolio as this asset class has been found to be the best bet for growing money over the long term.

http://www.financialexpress.com/money/how-to-pick-stock-market-winners-here-is-what-investors-must-do/1015200/

November IIP growth jumps @17-month high

November IIP growth jumps to 17-month high; Dec inflation rises to 5.2%

Industrial output grew at the fastest pace in 17 months to 8.4% in November

Arup Roychoudhury & Subhayan Chakraborty  |  New Delhi Last Updated at January 13, 2018 11:08 IST

India’s industrial output and headline retail price indices registered the highest growth since July 2016 — among the last crucial set of economic data before the Union Budget 2018-19.

The data released on Friday showed that the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), after slowing for two straight months, bounced back in November, rising by 8.4 per cent and signalling that industrial revival was back on track.

Meanwhile, the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation rate for December rose to 5.21 per cent, compared to 4.88 per cent in November and 3.41 per cent in December 2016.

The divergent trends, with robust industrial data and high inflation numbers, indicate that the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may not go in for an interest rate cut in the foreseeable future, with some analysts indicating there could even be a rate hike. Rising global oil prices not only increased fuel inflation to almost eight per cent in December, but will also make the Budget math a bit of a complicated exercise in these fiscally difficult times.

“A rate cut by the RBI can be ruled out; and based on the trajectory in the next few months, a rate hike could be the next rate action. But it would be the status quo in February,” said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist, CARE Ratings.

Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley presents the 2018-19 Budget on February 1. The only two major datasets yet to be released by the Centre are monthly wholesale inflation and trade data.

IIP growth “has been driven by a combination of restocking by companies and a more vibrant demand in certain sections,” Sabnavis said. 

He added that cumulative IIP growth for this fiscal year was now at 3.2 per cent, compared to the same period last year. Sabnavis expects IIP growth for the year at 4.5 per cent. IIP growth in November was fuelled by a 10.2 per cent rise in the manufacturing sector from the low 2.2 per cent in October. The manufacturing sector constitutes more than three-fourths of the IIP. However, within the manufacturing segment, 15 of the 23 sub-groups recorded a contraction, compared to 13 in the previous month.

Before this, industrial production growth in the country had slowed to a revised 1.99 per cent in October, from the 4.1 per cent in September, after rising to a nine-month high of 4.5 per cent in August. In November, the other major sub-sectors of electricity and mining rose by 3.9 per cent and 1.1 per cent, respectively. Capital goods production showed a rising trend for the fourth straight month. Its growth rate rose to a high 9.4 per cent from the 6.5 per cent rise in October.

It is possible that investments (gross fixed capital formation, or GFCF) may grow by a faster pace than what was estimated in the Advance Estimates. In the Advance Estimates, GFCF is estimated to grow at 4.5 per cent in FY18.

This translates into a cumulative growth rate of 5.9 per cent in the third (Q3) and fourth quarters, up from 4.7 per cent in the second quarter (Q2). But capital goods, a principal indicator used to estimate GFCF, have grown by eight per cent in Q3 so far, up from 4.8 per cent in Q2. Thus, as capital goods maintain their trajectory, it is quite likely that Q3 estimates, which will be released in February, will show higher investment growth.

“Manufacturing growth is expected to remain robust in December 2017, benefiting from a favourable base effect as well as the robust expansion displayed by sectors such as automobiles. However, the subdued performance of electricity generation and the output of Coal India may weigh upon the growth of mining and electricity in December 2017,” said Aditi Nayar, principal economist with Icra.

On possible MPC action, Nayar said that unless retail inflation persisted above five per cent for two quarters, a rate hike was not expected. The RBI has been asked by the government to keep inflation at four per cent, plus or minus two per cent. The CPI inflation rate for December shot up on the back of a rise in prices of food items, eggs, and vegetables. The inflation rate for the food basket (CFPI) increased to 4.96 per cent in December, from 4.42 per cent in the preceding month. The data revealed that eggs, vegetables, and fruits became costlier, while inflation moderated in the case of cereals and pulses.

The starkest jump was for vegetables, which shot up 29 per cent year-on-year, while the steepest fall was for pulses and products, which fell 23 per cent.

Inflation in oil touched 7.9 per cent on rising crude prices internationally, while house rent inflation reached 8.2 per cent on government revision of house rent allowance. Global oil prices hit $70 a barrel on Thursday, but eased on Friday. The Budget for 2017-18 had assumed global crude prices at $55, but officials say that they don’t have much of a problem if prices reach $65 a barrel.

First Published: Sat, January 13 2018. 01:54 IST

http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/november-iip-growth-jumps-to-17-month-high-dec-inflation-rises-to-5-2-118011201108_1.html